(un)Common Logic Insights

Beyond Last-Click Attribution: Holiday Campaign Models CFOs Trust

Written by Annie Duke | Oct 23, 2025 4:00:00 PM

Why Last-Click Falls Apart in Q4

The holiday season is the most complex time for tracking digital performance. Shoppers bounce between channels, discovering products on social, reading reviews on blogs, clicking retargeting ads, and finally converting through paid search.

Traditional last-click attribution gives all the credit to the final interaction, ignoring the touchpoints that shaped the buyer’s decision. For marketers, this misrepresents campaign performance. For CFOs, it creates mistrust in reported ROI.

In Q4, when marketing budgets spike and finance teams scrutinize results, marketers need attribution frameworks that tell a story CFOs can believe.

The Pitfalls of Last-Click During Holidays

Overweights Bottom-Funnel Channels

Retargeting and branded search often appear to be heroes under last-click models, but they’re simply closing work started by other channels.

Undervalues Awareness and Consideration

Top- and mid-funnel campaigns appear underperforming, even if they drive the majority of first touches and influence the buyer journey.

Misguides Budgeting Decisions

Marketers reallocate budgets toward the channels that appear profitable, often cutting investment in awareness strategies that actually feed the pipeline of lower funnel campaigns.

Smarter Attribution Models for Holiday Campaigns

Position-Based (U-Shaped)

Gives 40% of credit to the first touch, 40% to the last touch, and splits the remaining 20% across middle interactions. This acknowledges both discovery and conversion channels.

Time Decay

Assigns more credit to interactions closer to conversion. Helpful during Q4 when buyers move quickly from research to purchase.

Data-Driven Attribution (DDA)

Uses machine learning (available in Google Ads and GA4) to assign credit based on the actual observed impact of each channel. Requires volume but provides more accuracy.

Custom Funnel-Based Models

Marketers can create custom weights based on funnel stages — for example, 30% awareness, 30% consideration, 40% conversion. This aligns spending with strategic priorities.

What CFOs Want to See

CFOs don’t care about click-through rates or impressions. They want to understand:

  • Pipeline influence. Which campaigns drove qualified leads or sales opportunities?

  • Revenue impact. How much revenue is attributable to marketing by channel?

  • Forecasting accuracy. How reliable are the results for guiding future investment?

By presenting attribution models in business terms, marketers build credibility with finance leaders.

Practical Steps for Implementing Attribution Before Q4

  1. Map Campaigns to Funnel Stages. Define which channels serve awareness, nurture, and conversion.

  2. Tag Creatives and URLs Properly. Consistent UTM conventions ensure cleaner data and more granular performance views.

  3. Track Assisted Conversions in GA4. Highlight the number of conversions supported by multiple channels.

  4. Build Cohort-Based Reports. Demonstrate how customer groups interacted across campaigns prior to conversion.

  5. Run Incrementality Tests. Use geo-split or holdout tests to measure lift generated by a specific channel.

Key Takeaways

  • Last-click attribution inflates bottom-funnel channels and undercuts awareness campaigns.

  • CFOs need models that reflect both influence and revenue impact.

  • Position-based, time decay, and DDA models provide more trustworthy insights.

  • Incrementality testing proves ROI beyond clicks.

Holiday campaigns with transparent, business-aligned attribution earn CFO confidence and secure budgets for the future.

At (un)Common Logic, we help brands design attribution strategies that prove marketing’s impact in financial terms. Explore our Analytics services or contact us to see how we can help.

FAQs

Is last-click ever useful?

Yes, it can help understand which channel closed the deal. But it should never be the only model used for budget decisions.

What’s the easiest attribution model to explain to leadership?

Position-based models resonate because they show the importance of both first and last touches.

How do I know if my CFO trusts the data?

If your reports tie attribution to pipeline and revenue, you’ll see less skepticism and more partnership in budget discussions.

Do I need advanced tools for attribution?

Not always. GA4 and Google Ads offer built-in attribution models. For more complex needs, consider tools like Northbeam or other attribution platforms.